Economy, information technology, resource management
| Article # 4_2025 | submitted on 10/28/2024 displayed on website on 01/29/2025 |
| 20 p. | Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. |
| Method of probabilistic assessment of geological-economical indicators for plays at the exploration appraisal phase | |
| The article considers the method of determining the probabilistic characteristics of the play used in the design of exploration work: resources in case of its productivity; geological risk. The methodology is based on the analytical method for summing up probabilistic estimates of play trap resources without and taking into account geological risk. Formulas for probabilistic estimates of play resources for two specified modifications are obtained. It is shown that the structure of probabilistic estimates of play resources of both modifications allows us to apply a probabilistic scenario approach to them when assessing the economic indicators of play development. Formulas for calculating the components of the geological risk of the play are given - the probability of success of the play and the probability of failure of the play. Keywords: probabilistic estimate of play geological-economic indicators, play geological risk, summing up probabilistic assessments of trap resources. |
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| article citation | Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Metodika veroyatnostnoy otsenki geologo-ekonomicheskikh pokazateley pleev na poiskovo-otsenochnom etape geologorazvedochnykh rabot [Method of probabilistic assessment of geological-economical indicators for plays at the exploration appraisal phase]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2025, vol. 20, no. 1, available at: https://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2025/4_2025.html EDN: QVGQOY |
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Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Metody geologo-ekonomicheskoy otsenki ob"ektov poiska mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza s uchetom neopredelennosti i riska [Methods of geological and economic assessment of oil and gas exploration sites, taking into account uncertainty and risk]. Nedropol'zovanie XXI vek, 2016, no. 5 (62), pp. 190-201. (In Russ.).
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Summirovanie veroyatnostnykh otsenok resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Summation of probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2019, no. 2, pp. 30-38. (In Russ.).
Geologiya, poiski i razvedka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy: uchebnik dlya studentov neftyanykh tekhnikumov i kolledzhey [Geology, prospecting and exploration of oil and gas fields: a textbook for students of petroleum technical schools and colleges]. G.A. Gabrielyants. Moscow: Nedra, 2000, 586 p. (In Russ.).
Krylov N.A., Kucherya M.S. O korrektnom primenenii ponyatiya "pley" i "napravlenie geologorazvedochnykh rabot" [On the correct application of the concepts of "play" and "direction of geological exploration"]. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 2010, no. 6, pp. 4-9. (In Russ.).
Megill R.E. An Introduction to risk analysis: second edition. Tulsa, OK: Petroleum Pub. Co., 1977, 274 p.
Rouz Piter R. Analiz riskov i upravlenie neftegazopoiskovymi proektami [Risk analysis and management of oil and gas exploration projects]. Biblioteka neftyanogo inzhiniringa. Moscow: Izhevsk, 2011, 301 p. (In Russ.).
The CCOP guidelines for risk assessment of petroleum prospects. Bangkok, Thailand, Coordinating Committee for Coastal and Offshore Geoscience Programme in East and Southeast Asia, 2000, 35 p., available at: http://www.ccop.or.th/ppm/document/INWSI/INWSIDOCII-caluyng.pdf
Venttsel' E.S., Ovcharov L.A. Teoriya veroyatnostey i ee inzhenernye prilozheniya. Uchebnoe posobie dlya vtuzov [Probability theory and its engineering applications. Textbook for higher education institutions]. 2-e izd., ster. Moscow: Vyssh. shk., 2000, 480 p. (In Russ.).
Vvedenie v neftegazovuyu resursologiyu [Introduction to oil and gas resource management]. N.A. Krylov; ed. M.Ya. Zykina; OAO «Gazprom», OOO «Nauch.-issled. in-t prirodnykh gazov i gazovykh tekhnologiy VNIIGAZ». Moscow: VNIIGAZ, 2009, 99 p. (In Russ.).