|Article # 39_2015||submitted on 08/07/2015 displayed on website on 10/15/2015|
|20 p.||Shatrov S.V.|
|Analytical calculation of the chance to discover oil or gas field for some complicated dependence models of geologic factors|
|The paper constitutes the second part of the research in which a set of analytical formulas was derived for probability calculations of an oil or gas field discovery. The formulas were derived by the author for an unlimited number of leads and target horizons with respect to the spatial interdependences of geologic factors across different targets (potential hydrocarbon accumulations). In the previously published first part of this research the basic mathematical model of dependence was considered whereas in the present paper analytical formulas are derived for advanced sophisticated mathematical models to account for a more realistic description of geological concepts.
Keywords: exploration, chance of success, geologic factors, probabilistic dependence.
|article citation||Shatrov S.V. Analiticheskie formuly rascheta veroyatnosti otkrytiya mestorozhdeniya dlya uslozhnennykh modeley zavisimosti geologicheskikh faktorov [Analytical calculation of the chance to discover oil or gas field for some complicated dependence models of geologic factors]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2015, vol. 10, no. 4, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/11/39_2015.pdf|
Bickel, E.B., Smith, J.E., Meyer, J.L. 2008. Modeling dependence among geologic risks in sequential exploration decisions. SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering. Vol. 11. Issue 2. P. 352- 361. SPE-102369-PA. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/102369-PA