|Article # 12_2019||submitted on 03/11/2019 displayed on website on 04/18/2019|
|17 p.||Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I.|
|Summation of probabilistic net present value estimates of local objects taking into account of a geological risk|
|The article considers the methods of summation probabilistic net present value (NPV) estimates of local oil and gas objects (prepared for drilling traps) with account of the geological risk associated with these objects: Monte-Carlo method and the analytical method, proposed by authors. The problem is solved for the following conditions: a) various probabilistic NPV estimates of the traps; b) various risk capital of the traps; c) various probabilistic characteristics of trap's geological risk. It is shown that the probabilistic total NPV estimates, obtained by applying the methods under consideration, coincide. The specific characteristics of these estimates are analyzed, and conditions of their practical application are defined.
Keywords: local objects (prepared for drilling traps, probabilistic net present value (NPV) estimates; summation of the trap probabilistic net present value (NPV) estimates; geological risk accounting.
|article citation||Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Cummirovanie veroyatnostnykh otsenok chistogo diskontirovannogo dokhoda lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Summation of probabilistic net present value estimates of local objects taking into account of a geological risk]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2019, vol. 14, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2019/12_2019.html|
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Metody geologo-ekonomicheskoy otsenki ob"ektov poiska mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza s uchetom neopredelennosti i riska [Methods of geological and economic assessment of objects of search for oil and gas fields, taking into account uncertainty and risk]. Nedropol'zovanie XXI vek, 2016, no. 5(62), pp. 190-201.