Poroskun V.I.

poroskun@vnigni.ru




Graduated from Moscow Institute of Petrochemical and Gas Industry named after academician I.M. Gubkin, specialization in geology, prospecting and exploration (1971).
PhD in geology and mineralogy.
Deputy General Director of VNIGNI.
Area of scientific interest: geology of oil and gas.
Has more than 70 publications.
Economy, information technology, resource management
Section editor – PhD in economics Krasnov O.S.
Article # 12_2019 submitted on 03/11/2019 displayed on website on 04/18/2019
17 p.
pdf Summation of probabilistic net present value estimates of local objects taking into account of a geological risk
The article considers the methods of summation probabilistic net present value (NPV) estimates of local oil and gas objects (prepared for drilling traps) with account of the geological risk associated with these objects: Monte-Carlo method and the analytical method, proposed by authors. The problem is solved for the following conditions: a) various probabilistic NPV estimates of the traps; b) various risk capital of the traps; c) various probabilistic characteristics of trap's geological risk. It is shown that the probabilistic total NPV estimates, obtained by applying the methods under consideration, coincide. The specific characteristics of these estimates are analyzed, and conditions of their practical application are defined.

Keywords: local objects (prepared for drilling traps, probabilistic net present value (NPV) estimates; summation of the trap probabilistic net present value (NPV) estimates; geological risk accounting.
article citation Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Cummirovanie veroyatnostnykh otsenok chistogo diskontirovannogo dokhoda lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Summation of probabilistic net present value estimates of local objects taking into account of a geological risk]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2019, vol. 14, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2019/12_2019.html
DOI https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/12_2019
References

   Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Metody geologo-ekonomicheskoy otsenki ob"ektov poiska mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza s uchetom neopredelennosti i riska [Methods of geological and economic assessment of objects of search for oil and gas fields, taking into account uncertainty and risk]. Nedropol'zovanie XXI vek, 2016, no. 5(62), pp. 190-201.
   Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Summirovanie veroyatnostnykh otsenok resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Summation of probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2019, no. 2, pp. 31-37.
   Venttsel' E.S. Teoriya veroyatnostey [Probability theory]. Moscow, Vysshaya shkola, 2006, 575 p.


Economy, information technology, resource management
Section editor – PhD in economics Krasnov O.S.
Article # 18_2018 submitted on 04/19/2018 displayed on website on 05/31/2018
17 p.
pdf  Geological-economical evaluation and analysis of plays risks
Currently the expression "play" is widely used both in foreign and domestic practice of geological exploration for oil and gas. In the hierarchy of objects of geological research, the playground occupies an intermediate position between local and regional objects, which determines its dual nature: on the one hand, it is a group of local objects characterized by geological and statistical homogeneity, which makes it possible to evaluate their geological and economic indicators by probabilistic statistical methods, on the other hand, it is an independent object of study and assessment in the process of geological exploration. The main provisions of the logically ordered methodology for assessing the plays under conditions of uncertainty and risk are based on the English publications. The concept of "geological risk" has been introduced with reference to a play. Probabilistic estimates of geological and economic indicators are received without taking into account the geological risk - under the condition of the productivity of the play, and taking into account geological risk - assuming possible non-productivity of the play.

Keywords: geological prospecting for oil and gas, geological hazard, accounting methodology for uncertainty and geological risk.
article citation Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Geologo-ekonomicheskaya otsenka i analiz riskov pleev [Geological-economical evaluation and analysis of plays risks]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2018, vol. 13, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/3/18_2018.pdf
DOI https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/18_2018
References

   Baker R.A., Gehman H.M., James W.R., White D.A. Geologic Field Number and Size Assessments of Oil and Gas Plays. AAPG Bulletin, 1984, vol. 68, no. 4, p. 426.
   Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Veroyatnostnye otsenki resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Nedropol'zovanie XXI vek, 2010, no. 2, p. 24-29.
   Gert A.A., Volkova K.N., Nemova O.G., Suprunchik N.A. Metodika i prakticheskiy opyt stoimostnoy otsenki zapasov i resursov nefti i gaza [Methodical and practical experience of evaluation of reserves and oil and gas resources]. Novosibirsk: «Nauka», 2007, 383 p.
   Knoring L.D. Strategiya podgotovki zapasov nefti i gaza [The strategy of oil and gas reserves preparing]. St. Petersburg: «Nedra», 1992, 312 p.
   Krylov N.A. Vvedenie v neftegazovuyu resursologiyu [Introduction to oil and gas reserves study]. OOO «VNIIGAZ», 2009, 99 p.
   Krylov N.A., Kucherya M.S. O korrektnom primenenii ponyatiya «pley» i «napravlenie geologorazvedochnykh rabot» [On the correct application of the concept of "play" and "direction of geological exploration"]. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 2010, no. 6, p. 4-9.
   Lee P.J. Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources. Oxford University Press, 2008, 606 p.
   Rouz Piter R. Analiz riskov i upravlenie neftegazopoiskovymi proektami [Risk analysis and management of petroleum prospecting projects]. Biblioteka neftyanogo inzhiniringa. Moscow: Izhevsk, 2011, 301 p.