Economy, information technology, resource management
Section editor – PhD in economics Krasnov O.S.
|Article # 13_2011
|submitted on 01/26/2011 displayed on website on 04/04/2011
|Evaluation of hydrocarbon resources under conditions of high uncertainty
|Nowadays evaluation of hydrocarbons in Russia is made by the income approach. The Discounted Cash Flow model assumes that all initial indices are strictly determined. However, many problems appear because of high degree of uncertainty in reserves estimations and high variability of the prices in the world hydrocarbon markets. The problem can be solved by using a method of real options as the additional tool. Then the given causes of uncertainty are considered not as problems of cost estimates accuracy, but as a principal reason for the value of real option.
Key words: real options valuation, uncertainty, binomial model, Black-Scholes Option Model, option for failure, delay or expansion.
|Mazurina E.V. Otsenka stoimosti resursov uglevodorodov v usloviyakh vysokoy stepeni neopredelennosti [Evaluation of hydrocarbon resources under conditions of high uncertainty]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2011, vol. 6, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/3/13_2011.pdf