Geological simulation and issues of petroleum fields development
Section editor – Section editor – PhD in geology and mineralogy Prischepa O.M.
Article # 27_2020 | submitted on 06/29/2020 displayed on website on 08/20/2020 |
13 p. | Popova O.A. |
Influence of correlations on results of probabilistic geological modelling | |
The paper deals with utilization of correlations between volumetric parameters in probabilistic geological models. When creating 1D probabilistic models in which uncertainties assessment is realized by multiplication of distributions, interrelationships between parameters often are not considered well that cause incorrect results of hydrocarbons-in-place estimation and adoption of non-optimal decisions. The degree of interdependencies influence on the modelling results is demonstrated, as well as cases of typical correlations that should be analyzed in probabilistic modelling are described. Keywords: correlations between volumetric parameters, interdependences between parameters, geological uncertainties, probabilistic geological model. |
|
article citation | Popova O.A. Vliyanie korrelyatsiy na rezul'taty veroyatnostnogo geologicheskogo modelirovaniya [Influence of correlations on results of probabilistic geological modelling]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2020, vol. 15, no. 3, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2020/27_2020.html |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/27_2020 |
References
Alexander J.A., Lohr J.R. Risk Analysis: Lessons Learned. Society of petroleum engineers, 1998. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/49030-MS
Begg S.H., Welsh M.B., Bratvold R.B. Uncertainty vs. Variability: What’s the Difference and Why is it Important? Society of petroleum engineers, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/169850-MS
Harbaugh J.W., Davis J.C., Wendebourg J. Computing Risk for Oil Prospects: Principles and Programs. Pergamon, 1995, 452 p.
Popova O.A. Rol' kontseptual'noy geologicheskoy modeli v veroyatnostnoy otsenke mestorozhdeniya [The role of conceptual geological model in probabilistic field assessment]. Evropeyskaya assotsiatsiya geouchenykh i inzhenerov, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.201802014
Purvis D.C. Judgment in Probabilistic Analysis. Society of petroleum engineers, 2003. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/81996-MS
Stabell C.B. Alternative Approaches to Modeling Risks in Prospects with Dependent Layers. – Society of petroleum engineers, 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/63204-MS
Wang B., Kokolis G.P., Rapp W.J., Litvak B.L. Dependent Risk Calculations in Multiple-Prospect Exploration Evaluations. Society of petroleum engineers, 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/63198-MS
Begg S.H., Welsh M.B., Bratvold R.B. Uncertainty vs. Variability: What’s the Difference and Why is it Important? Society of petroleum engineers, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/169850-MS
Harbaugh J.W., Davis J.C., Wendebourg J. Computing Risk for Oil Prospects: Principles and Programs. Pergamon, 1995, 452 p.
Popova O.A. Rol' kontseptual'noy geologicheskoy modeli v veroyatnostnoy otsenke mestorozhdeniya [The role of conceptual geological model in probabilistic field assessment]. Evropeyskaya assotsiatsiya geouchenykh i inzhenerov, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.201802014
Purvis D.C. Judgment in Probabilistic Analysis. Society of petroleum engineers, 2003. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/81996-MS
Stabell C.B. Alternative Approaches to Modeling Risks in Prospects with Dependent Layers. – Society of petroleum engineers, 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/63204-MS
Wang B., Kokolis G.P., Rapp W.J., Litvak B.L. Dependent Risk Calculations in Multiple-Prospect Exploration Evaluations. Society of petroleum engineers, 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/63198-MS