Economy, information technology, resource management
| Article # 28_2021 | submitted on 07/21/2021 displayed on website on 09/20/2021 |
| 19 p. | Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. |
| Probabilistic oil and gas resource assessment for subsurface areas taking into account the dependence of geological risks of aggregated local objects by area and section | |
| The article discusses the methods for obtaining a probabilistic estimate of oil and gas resources for subsurface areas based on summing up probabilistic estimation of local objects (traps) resources, taking into account the dependence of their geological risks. The formalization of the dependence of geological risks of traps was carried out by separating and probabilistic description of the geological factors, leading to the formation of oil and gas deposits, into common areas for all traps and local ones that operate within individual local objects. Two methods are proposed and analyzed: analytical method and Monte Carlo method. The identity of the results of both methods is confirmed by the given conditional example. The statistical interpretation of the probabilistic assessment of the site resources is given which allowed us to introduce the concept of “geological risk” for the site and thus to determine two types of resource estimates – taking into account the geological risk, and excluding geological risk. The geological conditions for the practical application of the proposed methods are defined. Keywords: probabilistic oil and gas resource estimates; dependence of geological risks of local objects; summation of probabilistic estimates of resources of local objects, taking into account their geological risks. |
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| article citation | Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Metodika veroyatnostnoy otsenki resursov nefti i gaza uchastkov nedr s uchetom zavisimosti geologicheskikh riskov agregiruemykh lokal'nykh ob"ektov po ploshchadi i razrezu [Probabilistic oil and gas resource assessment for subsurface areas taking into account the dependence of geological risks of aggregated local objects by area and section]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2021, vol. 16, no. 3, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2021/28_2021.html |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/28_2021 |
References
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Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Veroyatnostnye otsenki resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Nedropol'zovanie XXI vek, 2010, no. 2, pp. 24-29.
Poroskun V.I. Sternin M.Yu., Shepelev G.I. Veroyatnostnaya otsenka zapasov na nachal'nykh stadiyakh izucheniya zalezhey nefti i gaza [Probabilistic estimation of reserves in the early stages of exploring oil and gas deposits]. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 1999, no. 5-6, pp. 59-63.
Rouz Piter R. Analiz riskov i upravlenie neftegazopoiskovymi proektami [Risk analysis and management of oil and gas exploration projects]. Biblioteka neftyanogo inzhiniringa, Izhevsk, 2011, 301 p.
Shatrov S.V. Raschet veroyatnosti otkrytiya mestorozhdeniya s uchetom vzaimnoy zavisimosti parametrov v predelakh otsenivaemykh plastov i struktur [Сalculation of oil or gas field discovery probability, accounting the inner dependence of probability parameters]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2015, vol. 10, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/11/13_2015.pdf. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/13_2015
The CCOP guidelines for risk assessment of petroleum prospects: Bangkok, Thailand, Coordinating Committee for Coastal and Offshore Geoscience Programme in East and Southeast Asia, 2000, 35 p.