Emelyanova N.M.
ckaa@yandex.ru
Graduated from Moscow Aviation Institute, specialization "aviation automation and telemechanics" (1958).
PhD of technical sciences.
Senior researcher of VNIGNI.
Area of scientific interest: mathematical methods in geology
Has more than 35 publications.
Economy, information technology, resource management
| Article # 28_2021 | submitted on 07/21/2021 displayed on website on 09/20/2021 |
| 19 p. | Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. |
| Probabilistic oil and gas resource assessment for subsurface areas taking into account the dependence of geological risks of aggregated local objects by area and section | |
| The article discusses the methods for obtaining a probabilistic estimate of oil and gas resources for subsurface areas based on summing up probabilistic estimation of local objects (traps) resources, taking into account the dependence of their geological risks. The formalization of the dependence of geological risks of traps was carried out by separating and probabilistic description of the geological factors, leading to the formation of oil and gas deposits, into common areas for all traps and local ones that operate within individual local objects. Two methods are proposed and analyzed: analytical method and Monte Carlo method. The identity of the results of both methods is confirmed by the given conditional example. The statistical interpretation of the probabilistic assessment of the site resources is given which allowed us to introduce the concept of “geological risk” for the site and thus to determine two types of resource estimates – taking into account the geological risk, and excluding geological risk. The geological conditions for the practical application of the proposed methods are defined. Keywords: probabilistic oil and gas resource estimates; dependence of geological risks of local objects; summation of probabilistic estimates of resources of local objects, taking into account their geological risks. |
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| article citation | Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Metodika veroyatnostnoy otsenki resursov nefti i gaza uchastkov nedr s uchetom zavisimosti geologicheskikh riskov agregiruemykh lokal'nykh ob"ektov po ploshchadi i razrezu [Probabilistic oil and gas resource assessment for subsurface areas taking into account the dependence of geological risks of aggregated local objects by area and section]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2021, vol. 16, no. 3, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2021/28_2021.html |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/28_2021 |
References
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Summirovanie veroyatnostnykh otsenok resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Summing up probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2019, no. 2, pp. 30-38.
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Veroyatnostnye otsenki resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Nedropol'zovanie XXI vek, 2010, no. 2, pp. 24-29.
Poroskun V.I. Sternin M.Yu., Shepelev G.I. Veroyatnostnaya otsenka zapasov na nachal'nykh stadiyakh izucheniya zalezhey nefti i gaza [Probabilistic estimation of reserves in the early stages of exploring oil and gas deposits]. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 1999, no. 5-6, pp. 59-63.
Rouz Piter R. Analiz riskov i upravlenie neftegazopoiskovymi proektami [Risk analysis and management of oil and gas exploration projects]. Biblioteka neftyanogo inzhiniringa, Izhevsk, 2011, 301 p.
Shatrov S.V. Raschet veroyatnosti otkrytiya mestorozhdeniya s uchetom vzaimnoy zavisimosti parametrov v predelakh otsenivaemykh plastov i struktur [Сalculation of oil or gas field discovery probability, accounting the inner dependence of probability parameters]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2015, vol. 10, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/11/13_2015.pdf. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/13_2015
The CCOP guidelines for risk assessment of petroleum prospects: Bangkok, Thailand, Coordinating Committee for Coastal and Offshore Geoscience Programme in East and Southeast Asia, 2000, 35 p.
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Veroyatnostnye otsenki resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Nedropol'zovanie XXI vek, 2010, no. 2, pp. 24-29.
Poroskun V.I. Sternin M.Yu., Shepelev G.I. Veroyatnostnaya otsenka zapasov na nachal'nykh stadiyakh izucheniya zalezhey nefti i gaza [Probabilistic estimation of reserves in the early stages of exploring oil and gas deposits]. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 1999, no. 5-6, pp. 59-63.
Rouz Piter R. Analiz riskov i upravlenie neftegazopoiskovymi proektami [Risk analysis and management of oil and gas exploration projects]. Biblioteka neftyanogo inzhiniringa, Izhevsk, 2011, 301 p.
Shatrov S.V. Raschet veroyatnosti otkrytiya mestorozhdeniya s uchetom vzaimnoy zavisimosti parametrov v predelakh otsenivaemykh plastov i struktur [Сalculation of oil or gas field discovery probability, accounting the inner dependence of probability parameters]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2015, vol. 10, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/11/13_2015.pdf. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/13_2015
The CCOP guidelines for risk assessment of petroleum prospects: Bangkok, Thailand, Coordinating Committee for Coastal and Offshore Geoscience Programme in East and Southeast Asia, 2000, 35 p.
Economy, information technology, resource management
Section editor – PhD in economics Krasnov O.S.
| Article # 5_2020 | submitted on 02/06/2020 displayed on website on 02/25/2020 |
| 17 p. | Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. |
| Method of probabilistic oil and gas resource assessment for the subsurface areas at the exploration appraisal phase | |
| The article offers an analytic method for obtaining a probabilistic of oil and gas resource estimation for subsurface area presented by a hierarchy of geological objects of different scales (subsurface area, layer, trap). The conditions for structuring objects of different scales define for this objects availability of both independent and dependent geological risks. It is assumed that dependency of geological risks in the hierarchical scheme is inherent in objects of a smaller scale (single layer traps) due to the presence of regional geological features common to larger scale objects (layer). The method is based on the sequential procedure of analytical summation probabilistic resource estimates of objects from a smaller scale (trap) to larger scales (layer and subsurface area) when correcting a dependency of geological risks of traps in each layer. This method allows us to reduce the overall problem of summing to the problem of summing probabilistic resource estimates with independent geological risks Keywords: probabilistic oil and gas resource estimate; multi-scale objects; independent and dependent geological risks; summation of the probabilistic resource estimates; accounting of the geological risks. |
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| article citation | Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Metodika veroyatnostnoy otsenki resursov nefti i gaza uchastkov nedr na poiskovo-otsenochnom etape [Method of probabilistic oil and gas resource assessment for the subsurface areas at the exploration appraisal phase]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2020, vol. 15, no. 1, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2020/5_2020.html |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/5_2020 |
References
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Summirovanie veroyatnostnykh otsenok resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Summing up probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2019, no. 2, pp. 30-38.
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Veroyatnostnye otsenki resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Nedropol'zovanie XXI vek, 2010, no. 2, pp. 24–29.
Fokin A. Riski i neopredelennost' v geologorazvedochnom protsesse [Risks and uncertainty in the geological exploration process]. Novator, 2011, no. 43, pp. 8–12.
Gabrielyants G.A. Geologiya, poiski i razvedka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy [Geology, prospecting and exploration of oil and gas fields]. Moscow: Nedra, 2000, 587 p.
Lee P.J., Wang P.C.C. Probabilistic Formulation of a Method for the Evaluation of Petroleum Resources. Math. Geology, 1983, vol. 15, no.1, pp. 163–181.
Rouz Piter R. Analiz riskov i upravlenie neftegazopoiskovymi proektami [Risk analysis and management of oil and gas exploration projects]. Biblioteka neftyanogo inzhiniringa, Izhevsk, 2011, 301 p.
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Veroyatnostnye otsenki resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Nedropol'zovanie XXI vek, 2010, no. 2, pp. 24–29.
Fokin A. Riski i neopredelennost' v geologorazvedochnom protsesse [Risks and uncertainty in the geological exploration process]. Novator, 2011, no. 43, pp. 8–12.
Gabrielyants G.A. Geologiya, poiski i razvedka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy [Geology, prospecting and exploration of oil and gas fields]. Moscow: Nedra, 2000, 587 p.
Lee P.J., Wang P.C.C. Probabilistic Formulation of a Method for the Evaluation of Petroleum Resources. Math. Geology, 1983, vol. 15, no.1, pp. 163–181.
Rouz Piter R. Analiz riskov i upravlenie neftegazopoiskovymi proektami [Risk analysis and management of oil and gas exploration projects]. Biblioteka neftyanogo inzhiniringa, Izhevsk, 2011, 301 p.
Economy, information technology, resource management
Section editor – PhD in economics Krasnov O.S.
| Article # 12_2019 | submitted on 03/11/2019 displayed on website on 04/18/2019 |
| 17 p. | Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. |
| Summation of probabilistic net present value estimates of local objects taking into account of a geological risk | |
| The article considers the methods of summation probabilistic net present value (NPV) estimates of local oil and gas objects (prepared for drilling traps) with account of the geological risk associated with these objects: Monte-Carlo method and the analytical method, proposed by authors. The problem is solved for the following conditions: a) various probabilistic NPV estimates of the traps; b) various risk capital of the traps; c) various probabilistic characteristics of trap's geological risk. It is shown that the probabilistic total NPV estimates, obtained by applying the methods under consideration, coincide. The specific characteristics of these estimates are analyzed, and conditions of their practical application are defined. Keywords: local objects (prepared for drilling traps, probabilistic net present value (NPV) estimates; summation of the trap probabilistic net present value (NPV) estimates; geological risk accounting. |
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| article citation | Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Cummirovanie veroyatnostnykh otsenok chistogo diskontirovannogo dokhoda lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Summation of probabilistic net present value estimates of local objects taking into account of a geological risk]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2019, vol. 14, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2019/12_2019.html |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/12_2019 |
References
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Metody geologo-ekonomicheskoy otsenki ob"ektov poiska mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza s uchetom neopredelennosti i riska [Methods of geological and economic assessment of objects of search for oil and gas fields, taking into account uncertainty and risk]. Nedropol'zovanie XXI vek, 2016, no. 5(62), pp. 190-201.
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Summirovanie veroyatnostnykh otsenok resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Summation of probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2019, no. 2, pp. 31-37.
Venttsel' E.S. Teoriya veroyatnostey [Probability theory]. Moscow, Vysshaya shkola, 2006, 575 p.
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Summirovanie veroyatnostnykh otsenok resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Summation of probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Geologiya, geofizika i razrabotka neftyanykh i gazovykh mestorozhdeniy, 2019, no. 2, pp. 31-37.
Venttsel' E.S. Teoriya veroyatnostey [Probability theory]. Moscow, Vysshaya shkola, 2006, 575 p.
Economy, information technology, resource management
Section editor – PhD in economics Krasnov O.S.
| Article # 18_2018 | submitted on 04/19/2018 displayed on website on 05/31/2018 |
| 17 p. | Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. |
| Geological-economical evaluation and analysis of plays risks | |
| Currently the expression "play" is widely used both in foreign and domestic practice of geological exploration for oil and gas. In the hierarchy of objects of geological research, the playground occupies an intermediate position between local and regional objects, which determines its dual nature: on the one hand, it is a group of local objects characterized by geological and statistical homogeneity, which makes it possible to evaluate their geological and economic indicators by probabilistic statistical methods, on the other hand, it is an independent object of study and assessment in the process of geological exploration.
The main provisions of the logically ordered methodology for assessing the plays under conditions of uncertainty and risk are based on the English publications.
The concept of "geological risk" has been introduced with reference to a play. Probabilistic estimates of geological and economic indicators are received without taking into account the geological risk - under the condition of the productivity of the play, and taking into account geological risk - assuming possible non-productivity of the play.
Keywords: geological prospecting for oil and gas, geological hazard, accounting methodology for uncertainty and geological risk. |
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| article citation | Emelyanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Geologo-ekonomicheskaya otsenka i analiz riskov pleev [Geological-economical evaluation and analysis of plays risks]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2018, vol. 13, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/3/18_2018.pdf |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/18_2018 |
References
Baker R.A., Gehman H.M., James W.R., White D.A. Geologic Field Number and Size Assessments of Oil and Gas Plays. AAPG Bulletin, 1984, vol. 68, no. 4, p. 426.
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Veroyatnostnye otsenki resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Nedropol'zovanie XXI vek, 2010, no. 2, p. 24-29.
Gert A.A., Volkova K.N., Nemova O.G., Suprunchik N.A. Metodika i prakticheskiy opyt stoimostnoy otsenki zapasov i resursov nefti i gaza [Methodical and practical experience of evaluation of reserves and oil and gas resources]. Novosibirsk: «Nauka», 2007, 383 p.
Knoring L.D. Strategiya podgotovki zapasov nefti i gaza [The strategy of oil and gas reserves preparing]. St. Petersburg: «Nedra», 1992, 312 p.
Krylov N.A. Vvedenie v neftegazovuyu resursologiyu [Introduction to oil and gas reserves study]. OOO «VNIIGAZ», 2009, 99 p.
Krylov N.A., Kucherya M.S. O korrektnom primenenii ponyatiya «pley» i «napravlenie geologorazvedochnykh rabot» [On the correct application of the concept of "play" and "direction of geological exploration"]. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 2010, no. 6, p. 4-9.
Lee P.J. Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources. Oxford University Press, 2008, 606 p.
Rouz Piter R. Analiz riskov i upravlenie neftegazopoiskovymi proektami [Risk analysis and management of petroleum prospecting projects]. Biblioteka neftyanogo inzhiniringa. Moscow: Izhevsk, 2011, 301 p.
Emel'yanova N.M., Poroskun V.I. Veroyatnostnye otsenki resursov nefti i gaza lokal'nykh ob"ektov s uchetom geologicheskogo riska [Probabilistic estimates of oil and gas resources of local objects taking into account geological risk]. Nedropol'zovanie XXI vek, 2010, no. 2, p. 24-29.
Gert A.A., Volkova K.N., Nemova O.G., Suprunchik N.A. Metodika i prakticheskiy opyt stoimostnoy otsenki zapasov i resursov nefti i gaza [Methodical and practical experience of evaluation of reserves and oil and gas resources]. Novosibirsk: «Nauka», 2007, 383 p.
Knoring L.D. Strategiya podgotovki zapasov nefti i gaza [The strategy of oil and gas reserves preparing]. St. Petersburg: «Nedra», 1992, 312 p.
Krylov N.A. Vvedenie v neftegazovuyu resursologiyu [Introduction to oil and gas reserves study]. OOO «VNIIGAZ», 2009, 99 p.
Krylov N.A., Kucherya M.S. O korrektnom primenenii ponyatiya «pley» i «napravlenie geologorazvedochnykh rabot» [On the correct application of the concept of "play" and "direction of geological exploration"]. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 2010, no. 6, p. 4-9.
Lee P.J. Statistical Methods for Estimating Petroleum Resources. Oxford University Press, 2008, 606 p.
Rouz Piter R. Analiz riskov i upravlenie neftegazopoiskovymi proektami [Risk analysis and management of petroleum prospecting projects]. Biblioteka neftyanogo inzhiniringa. Moscow: Izhevsk, 2011, 301 p.