Shatrov S.V.
shatrovsv@bashneft.ru
Graduated from Novosibirsk State University (2003); Heriot-Watt University (Scotland) - "MSc in Reservoir Evaluation and Management".
Post-graduate student of the Ufa State Oil Technical University (UGNTU).
Manager for new projects JSOC Bashneft".
Area of scientific interest: probabilistic assessment resources, production forecasts, technical and economic evaluation of exploration and production assets.
Author of 8 publications.
| Article # 39_2015 | submitted on 08/07/2015 displayed on website on 10/15/2015 |
| 20 p. | Shatrov S.V. |
| Analytical calculation of the chance to discover oil or gas field for some complicated dependence models of geologic factors | |
| The paper constitutes the second part of the research in which a set of analytical formulas was derived for probability calculations of an oil or gas field discovery. The formulas were derived by the author for an unlimited number of leads and target horizons with respect to the spatial interdependences of geologic factors across different targets (potential hydrocarbon accumulations). In the previously published first part of this research the basic mathematical model of dependence was considered whereas in the present paper analytical formulas are derived for advanced sophisticated mathematical models to account for a more realistic description of geological concepts.
Keywords: exploration, chance of success, geologic factors, probabilistic dependence. |
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| article citation | Shatrov S.V. Analiticheskie formuly rascheta veroyatnosti otkrytiya mestorozhdeniya dlya uslozhnennykh modeley zavisimosti geologicheskikh faktorov [Analytical calculation of the chance to discover oil or gas field for some complicated dependence models of geologic factors]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2015, vol. 10, no. 4, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/11/39_2015.pdf |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/39_2015 |
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Bickel, E.B., Smith, J.E., Meyer, J.L. 2008. Modeling dependence among geologic risks in sequential exploration decisions. SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering. Vol. 11. Issue 2. P. 352- 361. SPE-102369-PA. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/102369-PA |
| Article # 13_2015 | submitted on 03/04/2015 displayed on website on 04/07/2015 |
| 14 p. | Shatrov S.V. |
| Сalculation of oil or gas field discovery probability, accounting the inner dependence of probability parameters | |
| A formula that can be used to calculate the find probability of an oil or gas field discovery has been derived. The traditional approach of geologic factors is used, the novelty being that the formula is valid for an unlimited number of leads and target objects, while the interdependences of geologic factors across different targets (potential oil or gas accumulations). Presented are just the basic mathematical model of geological dependences and correspondingly the basic resulting formula, while in fact similar results have been obtained by the author for more complicated cases as well.
Keywords: geologic factors, oil and gas discovery probability, oil and gas prospection and exploration. |
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| article citation | Shatrov S.V. Raschet veroyatnosti otkrytiya mestorozhdeniya s uchetom vzaimnoy zavisimosti parametrov v predelakh otsenivaemykh plastov i struktur [Сalculation of oil or gas field discovery probability, accounting the inner dependence of probability parameters]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2015, vol. 10, no. 2, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/11/13_2015.pdf |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/13_2015 |
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Bickel J.E., Smith J.E., Meyer J.L. Modeling dependence among geologic risks in sequential exploration decisions. SPE, Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering, April 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/102369-PA |