Economy, information technology, resource management
| Article # 28_2023 | submitted on 06/30/2023 displayed on website on 08/07/2023 |
| 10 p. | Livshits V.R. |
| Estimation of the probability distribution of the number of undetected accumulations in hydrocarbon fields | |
| The probabilistic distribution of hydrocarbon fields by the number of accumulations in them is an important characteristic of the resource structure of a petroleum bearing basin and can be used to predict the effectiveness of geological exploration. An analytical approach to assessing the distribution of the number of undiscovered accumulations is proposed. On the example of the West Siberian petroleum province, based on the empirically found unconditional distribution of fields by the number of oil accumulations in them, the conditional probabilities of the presence of a given number of accumulations in the field were calculated, provided that some of them have already been identified. Keywords: petroleum bearing basin, structure of hydrocarbon resources, oil accumulation, hydrocarbon field, distribution of hydrocarbon field by the number of accumulations in them, assessment of the distribution of the number of undetected accumulations, West Siberian petroleum province. |
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| article citation | Livshits V.R. Otsenka veroyatnostnogo raspredeleniya kolichestva nevyyavlennykh zalezhey v mestorozhdeniyakh uglevodorodov [Estimation of the probability distribution of the number of undetected accumulations in hydrocarbon fields]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2023, vol. 18, no. 3, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2023/28_2023.html EDN: LVCWSV |
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Livshits V.R. Lateral'naya migratsiya uglevodorodov kak vozmozhnyy mekhanizm formirovaniya stepennogo raspredeleniya ikh skopleniy po masse [Lateral migration of hydrocarbons as a possible mechanism for the formation of a power-law distribution of their accumulations by mass]. Geologiya i geofizika, 2017, no. 3-4, pp. 372-383.
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Livshits V.R. O zakone raspredeleniya mestorozhdeniy uglevodorodov po masse [On the distribution law of hydrocarbon fields by mass]. Izvestiya Tomskogo politekhnicheskogo universiteta. Inzhiniring georesursov, 2020, vol. 331, no. 6, pp. 41-47.
Livshits V.R. Raspredelenie resursov uglevodorodov po zalezham i mestorozhdeniyam i mestorozhdeniy po chislu zalezhey [Distribution of hydrocarbon resources by accumulations and fields and fields by number of accumulations]. Neftyanoe khozyaystvo, 2021, no. 9, pp. 18-22.
Livshits V.R., Kontorovich A.E. Raspredelenie resursov uglevodorodov po mestorozhdeniyam razlichnoy krupnosti i po kolichestvu zalezhey v nikh [Distribution of hydrocarbon resources by fields of various sizes and by the number of accumulations in them]. Geologiya i geofizika, 2022, vol. 63, no. 11, pp. 1583-1590.
Prognoz mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza [Forecast of oil and gas fields]. A.E. Kontorovich, E.E. Fotiadi, V.I. Demin, V.B. Leontovich, A.A. Rastegin, Moscow: Nedra, 1981, 350 p.
Shpil'man V.I. Metodika prognozirovaniya razmerov mestorozhdeniy [Method of predicting the size of deposits]. Trudy in-ta ZapSibNIGNI, 1972, issue 53, pp. 118-126.
Burshteyn L.M. Vozmozhnyy mekhanizm formirovaniya raspredeleniya skopleniy uglevodorodov po krupnosti [Possible mechanism for the formation of the size distribution of hydrocarbon accumulations]. Geologiya i geofizika, 2004, vol. 45, no. 7, pp. 815-825.
Kendall M. Dzh., St'yuart A. Statisticheskie vyvody i svyazi [Inference and relationship]. Moscow: Nauka, 1973, 900 p.
Kolichestvennaya otsenka perspektiv neftegazonosnosti slaboizuchennykh regionov [Quantitative assessment of the prospects for petroleum potential in poorly studied regions]. A.E. Kontorovich, L.M. Burshteyn, G.S. Gurevich, V.I. Demin, M.S. Modelevskiy, A.A. Rastegin, I.A. Strakhov, A.L. Vymyatnin, V.R. Livshits. Pod. red. A.E. Kontorovicha. Moscow: Nedra, 1988, 223 p.
Kontorovich A., Domain V., Livshitc V. Size distribution and dynamics of oil and gas field discoveries in petroleum basins. AAPG Bulletin, 2001, vol. 85, no. 9, pp. 1609-1622.
Kontorovich A.E. Osadochno-migratsionnaya teoriya naftidogeneza: sostoyanie na rubezhe XX i XXI vv., puti dal'neyshego razvitiya [Sedimentary-migration theory of naftidogenesis: state at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, ways of further development]. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 1998, no. 10, pp. 8-16.
Kontorovich A.E., Demin V.I. Metod otsenki kolichestva i raspredeleniya po zapasam mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza v krupnykh neftegazonosnykh basseynakh [Method of estimation of the amount and distribution of oil and gas fields in large petroleum basins]. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 1977, no. 12, pp.18-26.
Kontorovich A.E., Demin V.I. Prognoz kolichestva I raspredeleniya po zapasam mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza [Forecast of the quantity and distribution of oil and gas fields by reserves]. Geologiya i geofizika, 1979, no. 3, pp. 26-46.
Kontorovich A.E., Livshits V.R. Imitatsionnaya stokhasticheskaya model' raspredeleniya mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza po resursam [Imitation stochastic model of the distribution of oil and gas fields by resources]. Sovetskaya geologiya, 1988а, no. 9, pp. 99-107.
Kontorovich A.E., Livshits V.R. Imitatsionnoe matematicheskoe modelirovanie stokhasticheskikh protsessov kak instrument kolichestvennoy otsenki neftegazonosnosti [Simulation mathematical modeling of stochastic processes as a tool for quantitative assessment of oil and gas content]. Geologiya nefti i gaza, 1988b, no. 12, pp. 48-51.
Kontorovich A.E., Livshits V.R. Novye metody otsenki, osobennosti struktury i puti osvoeniya prognoznykh resursov nefti zrelykh neftegazonosnykh provintsiy (na primere Volgo-Ural'skoy provintsii) [New estimation methods, peculiarities of structure and ways to develop forecast resources of mature oil and gas provinces (on the example of the Volga-Ural Province)]. Geologiya i geofizika, 2017, no. 12, pp. 1835-1852.
Kontorovich A.E., Livshits V.R., Burshteyn L.M., Kurchikov A.R. Otsenka nachal'nykh i prognoznykh (perspektivnykh i prognoziruemykh) geologicheskikh i izvlekaemykh resursov nefti Zapadno-Sibirskoy neftegazonosnoy provintsii i ikh struktury [Estimation of initial and forecast (prospective and predicted) geological and recoverable oil resources of the Western Siberian petroleum province and their structure]. Geologiya i geofizika, 2021, no. 5, pp. 711-726.
Lipskiy Yu.N., Rodionova Zh.F., Skobeleva T.P., Dekhtyareva K.I. Katalog kraterov Marsa i statistika kraterov Marsa, Merkuriya i Luny [Catalog of Mars craters and statistics of craters of Mars, Mercury and the Moon]. Moscow: Geol. in-t AN SSSR, 1977, 69 p.
Livshits V.R. Lateral'naya migratsiya uglevodorodov kak vozmozhnyy mekhanizm formirovaniya stepennogo raspredeleniya ikh skopleniy po masse [Lateral migration of hydrocarbons as a possible mechanism for the formation of a power-law distribution of their accumulations by mass]. Geologiya i geofizika, 2017, no. 3-4, pp. 372-383.
Livshits V.R. Matematicheskaya model' raspredeleniya skopleniy uglevodorodov po territorii neftegazonosnogo basseyna na primere Zapadno-Sibirskoy neftegazonosnoy provintsii [Mathematical model of the distribution of hydrocarbon accumulations over the territory of the petroleum basin on the example of the Western Siberian petroleum province]. Geologiya i geofizika, 2010, no. 2, pp. 201-205.
Livshits V.R. O zakone raspredeleniya mestorozhdeniy uglevodorodov po masse [On the distribution law of hydrocarbon fields by mass]. Izvestiya Tomskogo politekhnicheskogo universiteta. Inzhiniring georesursov, 2020, vol. 331, no. 6, pp. 41-47.
Livshits V.R. Raspredelenie resursov uglevodorodov po zalezham i mestorozhdeniyam i mestorozhdeniy po chislu zalezhey [Distribution of hydrocarbon resources by accumulations and fields and fields by number of accumulations]. Neftyanoe khozyaystvo, 2021, no. 9, pp. 18-22.
Livshits V.R., Kontorovich A.E. Raspredelenie resursov uglevodorodov po mestorozhdeniyam razlichnoy krupnosti i po kolichestvu zalezhey v nikh [Distribution of hydrocarbon resources by fields of various sizes and by the number of accumulations in them]. Geologiya i geofizika, 2022, vol. 63, no. 11, pp. 1583-1590.
Prognoz mestorozhdeniy nefti i gaza [Forecast of oil and gas fields]. A.E. Kontorovich, E.E. Fotiadi, V.I. Demin, V.B. Leontovich, A.A. Rastegin, Moscow: Nedra, 1981, 350 p.
Shpil'man V.I. Metodika prognozirovaniya razmerov mestorozhdeniy [Method of predicting the size of deposits]. Trudy in-ta ZapSibNIGNI, 1972, issue 53, pp. 118-126.