Popova O.A.
popova.oksana.geo@yandex.ru
Graduated from Scientific Research Tomsk Polytechnic University (2013), specialization "Oil and Gas Business" and Heriot Watt University specialization "Reservoir Evaluation and Management".
Expert of the Gazpromneft Neft Group of Companies, St. Petersburg.
Scientific interest area: conceptual and digital geological modeling, uncertainty analysis.
Author of more than 20 publications.
Geological simulation and issues of petroleum fields development
| Article # 24_2024 | submitted on 08/05/2024 displayed on website on 09/02/2024 |
| 14 p. | Popova O.A. |
| Relationship between forecast uncertainty of the productive units effective thickness and sedimentation conditions (example of one Yamal Peninsula field) | |
| The reservoir effective thickness is one of the most significant parameters in assessing petroleum geological reserves and the placement planning of production wells. The connection with the uncertainty analysis of this parameter deserves special attention. The approach of probabilistic forecast of reservoir effective thicknesses based on 3D modeling for the TP11-16 and BYa4-9 productive units of the Tanopchin Formation of one of the unique fields of the Yamal Peninsula is considered. The main specific features of the geological structure of the studied objects are characterized. For the strata under consideration, ranges of possible values of the net reservoir thickness have been determined at different distances from drilled wells. They differ significantly depending on the sedimentation conditions of reservoir rocks. It has been confirmed that depositional conditions are one of the key factors determining the uncertainty range of net reservoir thickness. Keywords: sedimentation conditions of reservoir rock, probabilistic forecast of reservoir effective thickness, uncertainty of reservoir thickness forecast, Tanopchin Formation, Yamal Peninsula. |
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| article citation | Popova O.A. Svyaz' neopredelennosti prognoza effektivnykh tolshchin produktivnykh plastov s usloviyami sedimentatsii otlozheniy na primere odnogo iz mestorozhdeniy poluostrova Yamal [Relationship between forecast uncertainty of the productive units effective thickness and sedimentation conditions (example of one Yamal Peninsula field)]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2024, vol. 19, no. 3, available at: https://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2024/24_2024.html EDN: GVEIWU |
References
Bocharov P.P., Pechinkin A.V. Teoriya veroyatnostey. Matematicheskaya statistika. 2-e izd. [Probability theory. Math statistics. 2nd ed.]. Moscow: FIZMATLIT, 2005, 296 p. (In Russ.).
Popova O.A. Ispol'zovaniye rezul'tatov veroyatnostnogo geologicheskogo modelirovaniya pri planirovanii bureniya ekspluatatsionnykh skvazhin [Using the results of probabilistic geological modeling when planning the drilling of production wells]. Geonauki: sovremennye vyzovy i puti resheniy: materialy 11-oy mezhdunarodnoy geologo-geofizicheskoy konferentsii. St. Petersburg, 2024, pp. 400-403. (In Russ.).
Popova O.A., Uraev O.O. Fatsial'nyye modeli produktivnykh plastov podneytinskogo rezervuara Bovanenkovskogo i Kharasaveyskogo mestorozhdeniy [Facies models of hydrocarbon-bearing formations of Podneytinskiy reservoir at Bovanenkovskoye and Kharasaveyskoye fields]. PRONEFT''. Professional'no o nefti, 2021, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 43-53. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.51890/2587-7399-2021-6-4-43-53
Popova O.A. Ispol'zovaniye rezul'tatov veroyatnostnogo geologicheskogo modelirovaniya pri planirovanii bureniya ekspluatatsionnykh skvazhin [Using the results of probabilistic geological modeling when planning the drilling of production wells]. Geonauki: sovremennye vyzovy i puti resheniy: materialy 11-oy mezhdunarodnoy geologo-geofizicheskoy konferentsii. St. Petersburg, 2024, pp. 400-403. (In Russ.).
Popova O.A., Uraev O.O. Fatsial'nyye modeli produktivnykh plastov podneytinskogo rezervuara Bovanenkovskogo i Kharasaveyskogo mestorozhdeniy [Facies models of hydrocarbon-bearing formations of Podneytinskiy reservoir at Bovanenkovskoye and Kharasaveyskoye fields]. PRONEFT''. Professional'no o nefti, 2021, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 43-53. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.51890/2587-7399-2021-6-4-43-53
Geological simulation and issues of petroleum fields development
Section editor – Section editor – PhD in geology and mineralogy Prischepa O.M.
| Article # 27_2020 | submitted on 06/29/2020 displayed on website on 08/20/2020 |
| 13 p. | Popova O.A. |
| Influence of correlations on results of probabilistic geological modelling | |
| The paper deals with utilization of correlations between volumetric parameters in probabilistic geological models. When creating 1D probabilistic models in which uncertainties assessment is realized by multiplication of distributions, interrelationships between parameters often are not considered well that cause incorrect results of hydrocarbons-in-place estimation and adoption of non-optimal decisions. The degree of interdependencies influence on the modelling results is demonstrated, as well as cases of typical correlations that should be analyzed in probabilistic modelling are described. Keywords: correlations between volumetric parameters, interdependences between parameters, geological uncertainties, probabilistic geological model. |
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| article citation | Popova O.A. Vliyanie korrelyatsiy na rezul'taty veroyatnostnogo geologicheskogo modelirovaniya [Influence of correlations on results of probabilistic geological modelling]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2020, vol. 15, no. 3, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2020/27_2020.html |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/27_2020 |
References
Alexander J.A., Lohr J.R. Risk Analysis: Lessons Learned. Society of petroleum engineers, 1998. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/49030-MS
Begg S.H., Welsh M.B., Bratvold R.B. Uncertainty vs. Variability: What’s the Difference and Why is it Important? Society of petroleum engineers, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/169850-MS
Harbaugh J.W., Davis J.C., Wendebourg J. Computing Risk for Oil Prospects: Principles and Programs. Pergamon, 1995, 452 p.
Popova O.A. Rol' kontseptual'noy geologicheskoy modeli v veroyatnostnoy otsenke mestorozhdeniya [The role of conceptual geological model in probabilistic field assessment]. Evropeyskaya assotsiatsiya geouchenykh i inzhenerov, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.201802014
Purvis D.C. Judgment in Probabilistic Analysis. Society of petroleum engineers, 2003. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/81996-MS
Stabell C.B. Alternative Approaches to Modeling Risks in Prospects with Dependent Layers. – Society of petroleum engineers, 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/63204-MS
Wang B., Kokolis G.P., Rapp W.J., Litvak B.L. Dependent Risk Calculations in Multiple-Prospect Exploration Evaluations. Society of petroleum engineers, 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/63198-MS
Begg S.H., Welsh M.B., Bratvold R.B. Uncertainty vs. Variability: What’s the Difference and Why is it Important? Society of petroleum engineers, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/169850-MS
Harbaugh J.W., Davis J.C., Wendebourg J. Computing Risk for Oil Prospects: Principles and Programs. Pergamon, 1995, 452 p.
Popova O.A. Rol' kontseptual'noy geologicheskoy modeli v veroyatnostnoy otsenke mestorozhdeniya [The role of conceptual geological model in probabilistic field assessment]. Evropeyskaya assotsiatsiya geouchenykh i inzhenerov, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.201802014
Purvis D.C. Judgment in Probabilistic Analysis. Society of petroleum engineers, 2003. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/81996-MS
Stabell C.B. Alternative Approaches to Modeling Risks in Prospects with Dependent Layers. – Society of petroleum engineers, 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/63204-MS
Wang B., Kokolis G.P., Rapp W.J., Litvak B.L. Dependent Risk Calculations in Multiple-Prospect Exploration Evaluations. Society of petroleum engineers, 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/63198-MS
Geological simulation and issues of petroleum fields development
Section editor – PhD in geology and mineralogy Prischepa O.M.
| Article # 7_2019 | submitted on 02/08/2019 displayed on website on 03/11/2019 |
| 8 p. | Popova O.A. |
| Geological parameters confidence maps - analysis instrument relevant to 3D probabilistic geomodeling results | |
| An example of the use of the geological parameters confidence maps to identify the most promising areas - effective oil-saturated thicknesses. A statistical basis is described for the use of maps in order to obtain the interesting interval estimate using the predicted value for the oil reservoir area. Keywords: confidence maps of geological parameters, probabilistic geological model, effective oil-saturated thickness. |
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| article citation | Popova O.A. Karty uverennosti geologicheskikh parametrov kak instrument analiza rezul'tatov 3D veroyatnostnogo geologicheskogo modelirovaniya [Geological parameters confidence maps - analysis instrument relevant to 3D probabilistic geomodeling results]. Neftegazovaya Geologiya. Teoriya I Praktika, 2019, vol. 14, no. 1, available at: http://www.ngtp.ru/rub/2019/7_2019.html |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.17353/2070-5379/7_2019 |
References
Belozerov B.V., Butorin A.V., Gerasimenko P.N., Zhuravleva E.V., Kaygorodov S.V., Logvinenko N.V., Meshcheryakova A.S., Mityaev M.Yu., Mostovoy P.Ya., Popova O.A., Sidubaev A.S., Faizov R.Z., Shatilov A.V. Prakticheskie sovety po 3D-geologicheskomu modelirovaniyu [Practical tips on 3D geological modelling]. Izd. 2-e, pererab. i dop. Moscow-Izhevsk: Institut komp'yuternykh issledovaniy, 2018, p. 363-396.
Gorbovskaya O.A. Veroyatnostnaya otsenka geologicheskikh neopredelennostey: vyuchennye uroki [Probabilistic Geological Uncertainties Assessment: Lessons Learned]. Rasshiryaya gorizonty: materialy ezhegodnoy Kaspiyskoy tekhnicheskoy konferentsii i vystavki SPE (Baku, Azerbaydzhan, 1-3 Nov 2017). DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/189015-RU
Gorbovskaya O.A., Belozerov B.V. Vliyanie geologicheskikh neopredelennostey na prinyatie investitsionnykh resheniy [Geological uncertainties influence on investment decision making]. Materialy Rossiyskoy neftegazovoy tekhnicheskoy konferentsii i vystavki SPE (Moscow, 24-26 Oct 2016). 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/182135-RU
Vysochanskiy, D.F., Petunin, Yu.I. Ob odnom neravenstve Gaussa dlya odnovershinnykh raspredeleniy [About Gauss Inequality for the Unimodal Distributions]. Teoriya veroyatnostey i ee primenenie, 1982, 27(2), p. 339-341.
Zakrevskiy K.E., Maysyuk D.M., Syrtlanov V.R. Otsenka kachestva 3D modeley [Assessment of 3D models quality]. Moscow: OOO «IPTs Maska», 2008, p.162-171.
Gorbovskaya O.A. Veroyatnostnaya otsenka geologicheskikh neopredelennostey: vyuchennye uroki [Probabilistic Geological Uncertainties Assessment: Lessons Learned]. Rasshiryaya gorizonty: materialy ezhegodnoy Kaspiyskoy tekhnicheskoy konferentsii i vystavki SPE (Baku, Azerbaydzhan, 1-3 Nov 2017). DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/189015-RU
Gorbovskaya O.A., Belozerov B.V. Vliyanie geologicheskikh neopredelennostey na prinyatie investitsionnykh resheniy [Geological uncertainties influence on investment decision making]. Materialy Rossiyskoy neftegazovoy tekhnicheskoy konferentsii i vystavki SPE (Moscow, 24-26 Oct 2016). 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/182135-RU
Vysochanskiy, D.F., Petunin, Yu.I. Ob odnom neravenstve Gaussa dlya odnovershinnykh raspredeleniy [About Gauss Inequality for the Unimodal Distributions]. Teoriya veroyatnostey i ee primenenie, 1982, 27(2), p. 339-341.
Zakrevskiy K.E., Maysyuk D.M., Syrtlanov V.R. Otsenka kachestva 3D modeley [Assessment of 3D models quality]. Moscow: OOO «IPTs Maska», 2008, p.162-171.